The Future Café: People, Policy, Trends, Technology, Leadership, Foresight, Innovation, Design

Clearly, the recent economic meltdown has impacted the employment landscape. Part of this is the shifting nature of internships, and a rethinking of what constitutes an "intern" in the emerging new economy.

Internships can often serve as invaluable training and retraining opportunities. As the economy undergoes a profound shift, these opportunities will become more valued by both job-seekers and employers alike.

Job-seekers are also staying relevant in an economy that is rapidly changing and morphing. Required skill-sets are shifting, and internships allow people to stay ahead of the curve and develop a personal tool-kit that is germane to jobs in the 21st century.

So where do I see internships headed?

(1) Out-ternships: The growing prevalence of “virtual” workers, or employees who telecommute and/or enjoy the benefits of VirFlex (virtual geographies, flexible times) working arrangements, may change our while thinking around the word “intern.” With continued improvements in networking technology, personal mobile technology and virtual meeting tools, we may see more companies offering up “out-ternship” opportunities for people who want to get experience working remotely. Technological advancements (i.e. telepresence) also give workers off-site flexibility by still being connected and engaged.

(2) Long-ternships: An internship that guarantees eventual permanent, paid employment with the company in which they interned. Their value to the company may be increased by the fact that they need little to no training.

(3) Re-evalution of older workers. No longer will internships just be about providing college and university students with on-the-job training or experience. It will come to encompass older workers who seek to remain relevant and active participants in the workforce. Much of today’s focus is on preparing younger workers for the new and/or lucrative careers brought about by technological change. But we forget that older workers – who have years of experience and tremendous value – might also be suited for these positions. In South Korea, for instance,silver job fairs, established to find jobs for people 60 and older, have mushroomed across the country in the past year. Longer life spans and changes in family structure have left many people, entering the later stages of their lives, unprepared for reentry into the workforce. Programs that encourage training and retraining for older workers will have tremendous value and utility.

Erica Orange

Vice President

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

200 E. 33rd Street, Ste. 9I

New York, NY 10016

212-889-7007 (office)

212-679-0628 (fax)

www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com

Twitter: @ErOrange @WEBFutureTrends

Communities used to meet in town squares to buy, sell and swap goods. For a while, that model all but disappeared, but thanks to a host of new social networks and other web platforms, people can now trade, swap, rent or barter goods, skills, services or expertise with considerable ease.

The shift from owning to renting has been a common topic in the news. In fact, Rachel Botsman’s book ”What’s Mine is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption” presents a compelling case for 21st century sharing.

To some, this may look like the purse-tightening aftershocks of the economic recession – for financial reasons, renting something often makes more sense than buying it. But what we are seeing emerge is a more fluid approach towards ownership, and a dramatic shift in consumption habits. In fact, purchasing products altogether – regardless of price and/or size – is losing some of its allure.

But it’s not just about changing our consumption habits; it’s also about a widespread value shift. A shift from valuing possessions to valuing usage. A shift from valuing ownership to valuing access. There is also the social aspect. By sharing our things, we are exhibiting a sense of sociability. In an era when families are scattered around the country and people may not know the people down the street, sharing things – even with online strangers – allows people to make meaningful connections.

We (Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.)are referring to this as the growth of “self-secondary markets” because of how the end-consumer is shifting — in fact, the consumer itself, rather than then company or brand, is the one creating the secondary market. And it is in this secondary market where a lot of the value is being derived.

There is tremendous activity in this space right now. Here are a few examples:

* RelayRides helps car owners rent their vehicles to other people. It’s similar to Zipcar, but without the fleet;
* The Ritz Carlton’s Loan-A-Lab program provides guests a yellow Labrador to “borrow” for hiking and other types of excursions;
* Peer-to-peer money-lending through Zopa.com allows people to completely sidestep the banks. The default rate is also less than 1%.

There are clearly many, many others.

The growth of self-secondary markets represents a new and potentially highly lucrative value-add for companies and organizations looking to expand and redefine traditional ways of conducting business. In a time of collaborative consumption and growing competition, access to the consumers may well be the most valuable asset to a business.

Over the last week, people around the world have been instantly struck by unbelievable scenes of turbulence in Egypt, as thousands have taken to the streets to protest against the current political regime.  In recent days things have gotten even uglier, too: American journalists have been assaulted, Molotov cocktails have been launched, and rocks and furniture have been hurled at protesters.  It’s not just the violence that’s the most surprising either – it’s the speed with which the political order in Egypt is being threatened.

But there is another significant part to the equation, and that is the alienation of the young people – primarily the young males – from the economic and political life of the country.

As we’ve seen for a while now, sex ratios are becoming skewed in much of the world thanks in part to a growing global imbalance of male-to-female ratios.  It is estimated that by 2020 there will be approximately 300 million more men than women in the world.  We’ve seen this demographic trend play out in China.  In Vietnam.  In South Korea.  A surplus of frustrated, low-status males is bound to spell trouble for society.  Some experts have argued that China might soon be bedeviled by an underclass group of malcontented single males who could stir up political instability or even armed revolts.  Sound familiar? It isn’t much different from what we currently see happening in Egypt.

In Egypt, the unemployment among young males (aged 15 to 29 years) was 32% in 2009.  In other words, one in three young men were out of a job….and, because of increased education, many more were affected by underemployment. Clearly, growing unemployment has led to insecurity over their future, which to many, seems bleak.  But when you take a generation of young males who have no future, and have no outlet for their aggression (and testosterone), a range of potentially dangerous problems could occur. 

Another primary reason for disillusionment among the youth is the perceived weakness of the state’s developmental role.  Because they have no way to vent their discontent to the “ruling elite,” they become more alienated.  And if the youth do not feel like services are extended to them – whether it’s a quality education or opportunity for employment – their connection and allegiance to the state and the regime will falter considerably.  Add to this the fact that many of the youth fear that the only means for social mobility is through criminal or corrupt means, i.e. bribery, nepotism or by bypassing the law entirely. 

So the question then becomes this:  What do we do with the young males?  As we’re seeing now, testosterone-fueled aggressiveness can disrupt or even tear apart societies that don’t find ways to channel those drives into activities that aren’t destructive to the communities.  In a worst case scenario, it may be that countries afflicted by the imbalance could to go to war as a means of sending young men’s aggressiveness to where it can do no harm internally. 

As we look at what is happening in Egypt politically, socially and economically, a combination of frustration with the existing system, a yearning for democracy, a desire to participate in decision-making and general dissatisfaction have all come together  to create the current situation on the streets.  An important lesson here, too, is the realization that if the interests of the young – especially the young males – are not taken care of, political stability in any country can be threatened.  So this may be just the beginning.

Erica Orange

Vice President

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

200 E. 33rd Street, Ste. 9I

New York, NY 10016

212-889-7007 (office)

212-679-0628 (fax)

www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com

Twitter: @ErOrange @WEBFutureTrends

In the November issue of Professional Pilot Magazine, I wrote an op/ed on what I see as one potential future for the aviation industry:

The movement of people and goods is increasingly showing the impacts of technological developments.  At a time when the costs associated with travel, transportation and shipping will increasingly matter to the bottom line, it will be imperative to rethink the way in which we view transportation in the coming years.  Some factors – energy concerns, environmental issues, terrorism and crime, etc. – are significantly affecting all aspects of travel and transportation. Other changes are incremental; some are revolutionary, in some ways bringing to reality what were formerly the fantasies of science fiction writers.  In the face of concerns about the environment and negative impacts of travel, the Internet (and virtual reality) will significantly reinvent the way in which we traditionally viewed transportation, and more specifically, aviation.

In our shop, we define virtual reality as tricking the brain into being somewhere else, doing something else, in real time.  By 2011, four out of every five people who use the Internet will actively participate in some sort of virtual environment.  This means that 1.6 billion out of a total 2 billion Internet users will have found new lives online. The virtual economy is growing at an exponential rate, and environments such as Second Life have morphed from a virtual playground into a force for change in the real world. As virtual objects and services gain real world value, a flourishing internal economy has emerged.  And today’s virtual worlds are primitive compared to what they will evolve into in the next few decades, as virtual reality comes closer to “real” reality.  As virtual travel becomes billed more and more as an environmentally-friendly alternative to real world travel, companies in the aviation industry may become more involved in this space by setting up profitable businesses there, information centers, experiential learning centers, etc.  It will also mitigate the need for excess baggage, passports and costly flights!

Airlines could use virtual environments to prototype new planes, terminals or airport lounges, thereby allowing consumers to test-drive features in virtual space before they are introduced in the real world. At a time when financial difficulties and ecological worries may limit actual tourism, a cheaper climate-stable virtual world can enable the aviation industry to navigate the future effectively.

Erica Orange

Vice President

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com

Twitter: @ErOrange @WEBFutureTrends

Many of the exact generational boundaries describing the 30-and-under population have been poorly defined, and terms are oftentimes used interchangeably.  For example, terms like “Millennial” sometimes are used to describe portions of what is considered “Generation Y”.  For the purpose of this blog, I am focusing solely on the under-18 population.  Forward-thinking companies must understand this group not only because its members are so deeply immersed in technology, and because they represent an extremely lucrative market segment, but they are the workers, customers and citizens of tomorrow.   Many of these children will have never seen a world without virtual reality, text messaging and MP3 players. They not only display a unique desire to test and experiment with various products, but they want to own them as well. 

At the earliest stages of development, these children’s brains are being constantly stimulated.  As a result, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) has become the most commonly diagnosed childhood disorder in the United States and is rapidly spreading elsewhere. Rather than addressing the problem head-on, schools have resorted to increasing the level of pharmaceutical drug use as a way to help treat young people with “socially unacceptable” behavior.  These children have grown up in a world that began marketing to them even before they were born.  What we have created are children who expect to be stimulated at all times - - and when they are not, they tune out.

The element of design has become critical, as many products and services compete for consumer attention in a saturated marketplace.  For example, considering the global commoditization of cell phones, marketers are being forced to use clever and innovative designs as a way to target the under-18 audience. Since this demographic puts a high value on having the latest piece of gadgetry, the aesthetic appeal of a product is vital.  Desire to have the “it” product will force companies to incessantly push the envelope and continually unveil newer and more exciting models.  In a world where social networking and status have become paramount, the ability of those who are under 18 to flaunt their own innovative gadgets and high-tech toys to their peers becomes a very important leverage point for marketers. The novelty of an item has become increasingly short-lived. 

On the school-front, the majority of school-aged children are bored in class, citing that the material being taught is simply not interesting.  Not only does this reflect the disconnect between students’ learning needs and the current educational system, but it also points to the fact that these kids need to be constantly stimulated at all times. Perhaps advancements in neuroimaging will allow some progressive educators to develop a more stimulating approach, such as brain-compatible lesson plans based on how individuals process visual and aural information.  Mind-controlled interactive gaming techniques may also be increasingly used as educational tools.  Eventually, these methods could one day be used as a way to alleviate classroom boredom by customizing instruction based on genetic makeup and personal preferences. 

Children under the age of 18 are not just looking at short-term rewards or satisfaction but also immediate gratification.  The ability to capture the attention of this market will be increasingly paramount.  Companies will need to know exactly how to effectively hook-in and appeal to this population in order to be successful.  And in a world of over-saturation, marketing and advertising messages that resonate above the rest will stand a greater chance of being heard, although this will not necessarily guarantee that the messages will sell effectively.

The children of today, accustomed to being treated as special (by parents and marketers alike), will eventually transform both professional and personal lives as they cross the threshold into adulthood.  By having heightened and unrealistic expectations, as well as a growing sense of entitlement, these children will likely bring their own brand of egoism to the workplace. It may be prudent for companies to embrace the members of this generation for the new perspective they will bring to the table.

Companies will be pressured to create innovative “must have” products in order to appeal to this market. This pressure is already being felt by companies - - perhaps most notable is the breakneck pace at which personal electronics developers have to roll out updated iterations of both hardware and software platforms, to keep up with the shifting demand of the under-18 market.

In the workplace, this generation will increasingly seek out those employers who both engage them and spark excitement.  Once most of these children become adults, they will have difficulty working in an environment that lacks creativity, vision, positive reinforcement, and consistent peer-interaction. Human resource managers will have to go back to the drawing board when developing recruitment and retention policies for this generation.  

Erica Orange

Vice President

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

200 E. 33rd Street, Ste. 9I

New York, NY 10016

212-889-7007 (office)

212-679-0628 (fax)

www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com

Twitter: @ErOrange @WEBFutureTrends

SINGAPORE: Singapore has recently formed a strategic futures network involving the deputy secretaries from all government ministries and chaired by the Head of Civil Service.

Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security, Professor S Jayakumar said the aim was to discuss emerging issues and risks, and share experiences on foresight projects and programmes.

 Speaking at the first Global Futures Forum meeting held in Singapore, he said such arrangements would grow as more government agencies establish futures units of their own.

The support structure would give Singapore government officers the space and opportunities to test their ideas and learn from one another.

Read the rest of this post »

As the world enters the next stages of technological revolution, what we are beginning to unravel about the universe is rapidly propelling us to the frontiers of the unknown.  Now, and in the years to come, all of our bodies of understanding will be profoundly changed.  What we did, what we made, what we believed and what we valued are all undergoing fundamental transformation.  What we measure, still, is what we can see, what we can touch, and what we can replicate.  These measurements are no longer appropriate and effective for the world into which we are moving.  We are only beginning to realize that we need to learn how to measure different things differently if we are to thrive as people and as institutions.

Recently, we have heard a lot come through the pipeline as it relates to the Theory of Everything, String Theory and the Akashic Field.  All, in essence, claim that every point in space is connected with every other point; and every thing with every other thing. Other theories are gaining more mainstream traction, too.  The growing field of Evolutionary Panpsychism, for instance, posits that consciousness is universal and applies to all things.  This thinking represents a revaluation of the natural world in which human and non-human are one.  If our thinking shifts to view the world so holistically – with no duality between humans and nature – what are the ethical consequences? Will this eventually serve as a source for more compassionate and ecological values?  

Many believe human communication and interaction is limited to our sensory channels.  Our views and experiences are restricted by our own senses.  The human, for instance, only sees within a small portion of the light spectrum.  The five senses are the key instruments that we have in life to perceive the world and make our way within it.  We are just beginning to learn how to unleash our higher – or heightened – forms of seeing and hearing that could link us to the greater universe of consciousness, just as our outer senses connect us to the external world.

We are learning that we are linked by more subtle and encompassing connections as well.  For all of human history, the wider universe of waves, frequencies and vibrations was virtually unexplored…until now.  Here are a couple of examples:

• In the laboratory, modern people display a capacity for spontaneous transference of impressions and images, especially when they are emotionally close to each other.
• Reliable evidence is becoming available that the conscious mind of one person can produce repeatable and measurable effects on the body of another.
• Intercessory prayer and spiritual healing, together with other mind- and intention-based experiments and practices, yield impressive evidence regarding the effectiveness of telepathic and telesomatic information- and energy-transmission.
• The chanting of monks and the sounds absorbed in the womb from the mother have long been known to affect the physical being, but imaging research is now confirming the effects on the brain and development. 
• Questions about what is happening to bee populations around the world – populations vital to the food chain – often center around the effects of confusing signals in the environment, disorienting them. 
• New forms of therapy are emerging which are being used as personal tools for growth, transformation and healing: sound healing, consciousness healing, transcendental meditation, magnet therapy, chakra clearing and balancing, out-of-body experiences, clairvoyance and ascension, pranic healing and seichim (learning how to harness personal energy systems and living light energy).

The fusion of cosmology, quantum physics, quantum biology, neuroscience and parapsychology (among many other factors) are now beginning to reveal that our bodies and minds are not just biochemical systems. This convergence of seemingly disparate fields of study may in fact provide a physical-scientific basis for universal consciousness. Further, it demonstrates that certain spiritual or transcendental states of collective consciousness could have a valid basis within scientific circles. This delicate interplay is also dramatically altering our traditional notions of time and space.

What we are seeing is that a new form of spirituality is arising, not out of ideology, but out of scientific hypotheses and applications, especially as science gives more nods to the non-linear, non-rational and non-tangible.  Concepts like virtual, interconnected or appropriate (appropriate technology (AT) is designed with particular consideration to the environmental, ethical, cultural, social, political, and economical aspects of the community it is intended for) could likely gain a new significance. The “science of spirituality” will continue to evolve, especially as the lines between the two become increasingly blurred.  

Erica Orange

Vice President

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

200 E. 33rd Street, Ste. 9I

New York, NY 10016

212-889-7007 (office)

212-679-0628 (fax)

www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com

Twitter: @ErOrange @WEBFutureTrends

Locally and globally, we continue to see that the nature of jobs is profoundly changing, and what we do in order to earn our incomes, and how we do it, will never be the same.  Importantly, none of this will ever again conform to what were the norms or rules or expectations across companies or through the years.  The business of getting, keeping, being rewarded for and losing jobs has become a virtual free-for-all.

On August 19^th, I had the pleasure of participating in DeVry University’s first In-Demand Careers Summit.  I spoke to the audience about the galloping pace of change, and how a slew of new technologies are ushering people out of their jobs, and changing the way we work and live. While many people view the current economic climate as a recession, in our shop, we view this as a period of transition and transformation.  We are moving from the world as we have always known it to a radically new one – and with it comes an urgent need for new ways of doing business, structuring organizations, and living our lives. 

At the event, I spoke about how careers will never be the same as they used to be, and will look very different in the years to come. The idea that there are definitive beginning, middle and end stages to an individual’s life is also shifting.  People are now more likely to quit work and go back to school or retire and then take up a new career than ever before; life is less and less likely to follow a linear path.  There are also no career paths any more in one place or one industry, and there is no longer any guarantee that the job will even be there as long as a year later. 

This event also examined where information security is moving in the future. One of the things we’re seeing is that the rampant proliferation of new technologies, both in the home and in the workplace, is ushering in a new dimension of online privacy.  In an era of heightened information security and fallibility, it is becoming more and more important to make sure your online data is not getting confused with someone else’s data.  Learning how to manage this will be critical in the 21^st century, especially as online personal data is controlled and owned less and less by the individual. 

As technology rapidly advances, increasingly complex networks are allowing weaknesses to infiltrate and compromise entire systems.  Consequently, the erosion of online privacy will increase the importance of learning how to manage and control this ever-growing cluster of networked data, and will likely create a growing demand, and market of significance, for jobs within the information security field.

Lastly, since work is no longer defined by the place, but rather by a series of activities that can be conducted virtually anywhere and at any time, those employed in information security-related fields will need to closely monitor both of these environments.  Universities will also need to teach a new generation about data security and risk, and help students identify and address the real-world challenges of IT security in new and innovative ways. 

Erica Orange

Vice President

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

200 E. 33rd Street, Ste. 9I

New York, NY 10016

212-889-7007 (office)

212-679-0628 (fax)

www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com

Twitter: @ErOrange @WEBFutureTrends

There has been a lot of talk in recent years about outsourcing – the movement of work to other entities and other places. The most contentious part of that issue was offshoring – the movement of work and jobs to other countries. However, the real issue for the future is othersourcing – the increasing ability to have work done not only off-site and by other entities, but by non-humans.

Many job functions that have traditionally been done by people are now being done more cheaply, quickly and efficiently by computers, software and other forms of artificial intelligence. This trend is only going to increase. Even professions that rely on powerful human elements, including trust, interpersonal manner and persuasion, are now faced with at least some intrusion from artificial intelligence on the horizon.

As work becomes more abstract and impersonal, it has become easier to depersonalize it and see workers as abstract, too. This, together with the extraordinary technological advances of recent years, is leading to a potentially massive shift of higher kinds of work to machines and software.

Automation and outsourcing are now extending to include many more white-collar jobs, and the brainwork is becoming, or has already become, commoditized. There are practically no limits to shifting white-collar jobs abroad if the work is conducive to the Internet and the telephone. The safest situation is having a job that absolutely requires your physical presence, such as a plumber or a brain surgeon (even though we will increasingly see that done more and more by robots.) Other than that, sustainable careers typically are those that involve deep relationships with customers and extensive knowledge of local market conditions. Alan S. Blinder (professor, Princeton University) classifies 8.2 million people’s current jobs as highly offshorable and 20.7 million as more offshorable. This is paving the way for the eventual emergence of higher artificial intelligence, which will engulf our everyday lives.

Currently, and in the years to come, the workforce will be increasingly cleaved into two: those whose services can be delivered electronically over long distances, and those whose services cannot. While the work of computer programmers, accountants, radiologists, and even security guards can be automated, personal chefs, plumbers, electricians and janitors are less vulnerable to displacement by remote intelligence. Therefore, the traditional distinctions between high-end and low-end work do not apply to the shifts in the labor market. The shift taking place now occurs as intelligent machines take their place alongside their human counterparts.

Erica Orange

Vice President

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

200 E. 33rd Street, Ste. 9I

New York, NY 10016

212-889-7007 (office)

212-679-0628 (fax)

www.WeinerEdrichBrown.com

http://twitter.com/WEBfuturetrends

"Bill Gates thinks something is going to die too.

No, it’s not physical books like Nicholas Negroponte — instead, Gates thinks the idea of young adults having to go to universities in order to get an education is going to go away relatively soon. Well, provided they’re self-motivated learners.

“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world,” Gates said at the Techonomy conference in Lake Tahoe, CA today. “It will be better than any single university,” he continued.

He believes that no matter how you came about your knowledge, you should get credit for it. Whether it’s an MIT degree or if you got everything you know from lectures on the web, there needs to be a way to highlight that.

He made sure to say that educational institutions are still vital for children, K-12. He spoke glowingly about charter schools, where kids can spend up to 80% of their time deeply engaged with learning.

But college needs to be less “place-based,” according to Gates. Well, except for the parties, he joked.

But his overall point is that it’s just too expensive and too hard to get these upper-level educations. And soon place-based college educations will be five times less important than they are today.

One particular problem with the education system according to Gates is text books. Even in grade schools, they can be 300 pages for a book about math. “They’re giant, intimidating books,” he said. “I look at them and think: what on Earth is in there?“

According to Gates, our text books are three times longer than the equivalents in Asia. And yet they’re beating us in many ways with education. The problem is that these things are built by committee, and more things are simply added on top of what’s already in there.

Gates said that technology is the only way to bring education back under control and expand it."